A management consulting services firm has forecasted that the retail sales in this holiday period will increase at only 2.8% due to unemployment problems, slow growth in disposable income and fiscal fears after the election.

The New Canaan, Connecticut based consulting firm released its 11th annual holiday forecast, which predicts the low growth in retail sales. Customer Growth Partners said in their report that retail sales during the next two months will be at $556.8 billion, but this figure excludes restaurants, autos and gasoline. The 2.8% increase in retail sales forecasted this holiday season is less than that of 5.8% forecasted in 2011. This year, the firm has pointed out that consumers have cut on their spending and are buying more needs than discretionary goods. The firm has however, said that performance wear and footwear may have the strongest sales. E-commerce growth is expected to decrease from last year’s growth of 17% to the forecasted 11% growth this year.

The consulting firm is releasing its Holiday 2012 Early Outlook report later than some management-consulting firms who had released theirs early this year. National Retail Federation had put the growth forecast at 4.1%. Deloitte consulting firm put their forecast at between 3.5% and 4%, this figure included online sales and also covered for January next year to take into account late holiday shopping and gift card sales.

The International Council of Shopping Centers forecasts an increase in retail sales of 3% this holiday time. Although the firm insists that the predictions are just meant to be an indication of whether things will be better or worse.

Customer Group Partners have the lowest focus of all consulting firms’ forecasts, which seem to have an average of 3-4% of increase in holiday sales.